September’s Scrap Forecast

Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market

Chicago’s ferrous scrap market is expected to remain sideways from August into September despite downward pressure being felt from 16 mill maintenance outages scheduled for September and October. Feedstock is beginning to tighten, with sheet iron and car shipments down approximately 10–15% month over month. Prime scrap is expected to remain unchanged for the eighth consecutive month. Secondary grades continue to face downward pressure. An August overhang of shredded scrap is still working its way through the market, and scrap continues to flow despite August’s price decline. However, Midwest mill demand and tightening feedstock could provide enough support to keep Chicago pricing sideways and limit further declines.

Finished Steel Pricing on the Rise. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) is currently approximately $1,205 per short ton, its highest level since May 2022. The spread between HRC and No. 1 Busheling has widened to approximately $899 per ton. The last time the spread reached levels this high was during the historic steel market peak of late 2021 and early 2022.

Mill Outages Could Weigh on Fall Demand

More than 20 mill maintenance outages are scheduled through the end of the year, including 16 outages scheduled during or spanning September and October.

The largest concentration occurs in October, and the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be particularly affected. These outages could temporarily reduce regional scrap demand heading into the fall.

The Midwest and Great Lakes region accounts for 11 outages, including four in Indiana and three in Ohio. The remaining outages are spread primarily across the South and Southeast, with Arkansas seeing four scheduled outages and Texas seeing two.

Of the outages with reported durations, approximately 166–177 total outage days are scheduled. Ten outages have not yet reported a duration.

Bottom Line

September’s scrap metal prices is expected to remain sideways in Chicago. Tightening feedstock and reduced inbound scrap volumes should help support pricing, while the shredded scrap overhang and upcoming mill outages continue to create downside pressure. As we move further into the fall, mill maintenance schedules and regional demand will remain key factors to watch.

What we are Watching

• Scrap Flow and Inventory Levels at Steel Mills
• Mill Maintenance Outages
• Export Activity
• HRC Prices
• Midwest Scrap Metal Demand

How BL Duke Navigates the Market

During the first week of each month—often referred to as “The Buy”—our team works directly with steel mills to secure orders across all ferrous grades. Fastmarkets typically publishes and settles pricing on or before the 10th of the month, which often reflects the outcome of these negotiations. The following weeks are focused on executing and shipping against those commitments.

Market dynamics such as supply and demand, mill outages, export activity, weather conditions, and freight availability all play a role in shaping these negotiations. At BL Duke, we focus on shipping-point pricing and leverage our multi-modal capabilities—truck, rail, and barge—to move material efficiently and maximize value for our customers.

We will continue to monitor the market closely and update this forecast as new information becomes available leading up to the monthly trade.