August’s Scrap Forecast

Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market

In Chicago, we are predicting a divided ferrous scrap market for August. Prime grades remain the strongest segment, supported by healthy hot-rolled coil pricing and steel mill order books extending into October. We expect prime pricing to remain relatively steady, although mills may test lower bids.

Obsolete grades are facing greater downward pressure. We predict that Shredded Scrap and Heavy Melt could decrease by as much as $20 per gross ton as mills cancel unshipped orders and work to lower August contract pricing.

Improving export demand may help limit further declines. Turkish mills booked six U.S. cargoes in July, removing at least 180,000 tonnes of scrap from the domestic market.

“We went from extreme heat to the potential for river flooding in a matter of just a few weeks. These weather swings can quickly slow scrap flows and create transportation challenges across the region,” said Jim Schulte, BL Duke’s Joliet Yard Manager and Director of Ferrous Processing.

“We went from extreme heat to the potential for river flooding in a matter of just a few weeks. These weather swings can quickly slow scrap flows and create transportation challenges across the region,” said Jim Schulte, BL Duke’s Joliet Yard Manager and Director of Ferrous Processing.

Market Drivers. Strong hot-rolled coil pricing and extended mill order books should continue to support prime scrap. Shredded Scrap and Heavy Melt, however, are expected to face weaker conditions as mills manage inventories, cancel orders, and limit purchases.

Several markets have also introduced intake restrictions. Texas halted shipments from August 3 through August 10, Alabama skipped August HMS purchases, and Arkansas is declining barge-delivered Shredded Scrap.

Logistics & Market Access. BL Duke continues to leverage its multi-modal transportation network—truck, rail, and barge—to provide reliable service, maximize market access, and support stronger returns for our customers. Our team remains focused on creating competitive market options and delivering value across every grade and geography as August trading conditions develop.

What we are Watching

• Shredded Scrap and Heavy Melt pricing

• September and October maintenance outages

• Export activity

• Mill order cancellations and intake restrictions

• Prime scrap demand

Fall Demand Outlook. We are also watching 12 planned mill maintenance outages, with six scheduled for September and six in October. We predict these outages could soften scrap demand over the next two quarters.

How BL Duke Navigates the Market

During the first week of each month—often referred to as “The Buy”—our team works directly with steel mills to secure orders across all ferrous grades. Fastmarkets typically publishes and settles pricing on or before the 10th of the month, which often reflects the outcome of these negotiations. The following weeks are focused on executing and shipping against those commitments.

Market dynamics such as supply and demand, mill outages, export activity, weather conditions, and freight availability all play a role in shaping these negotiations. At BL Duke, we focus on shipping-point pricing and leverage our multi-modal capabilities—truck, rail, and barge—to move material efficiently and maximize value for our customers.

We will continue to monitor the market closely and update this forecast as new information becomes available leading up to the monthly trade.