August’s Scrap Forecast

Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market

In Chicago, August is expected to follow July’s lead, with strong mill demand supporting another sideways market. Prime grades remain the strongest segment, supported by healthy hot-rolled coil (HRC) pricing and steel mill order books extending into October. While summer manufacturing slowdowns may reduce scrap generation and steel production, current demand appears strong enough to keep prime pricing unchanged.

Obsolete grades could decrease by as much as $20 per gross ton in Chicago, particularly Shredded Scrap and Heavy Melt. However, improving export demand may help limit further declines. Turkish mills booked six U.S. cargoes in July, removing at least 180,000 tonnes of scrap from the domestic market and creating additional competition for available obsolete tons.

“Domestic demand and strong mill order books continue to support prime grades. Export activity will be an important factor to watch as the August market develops.” — Jim Schulte, BL Duke’s Joliet Yard Manager and Director of Ferrous Processing.

Market Drivers. Strong hot-rolled coil pricing and extended mill order books continue to support domestic steel production and demand for prime scrap. Prime grades are therefore expected to remain relatively steady, even as seasonal manufacturing slowdowns affect the generation of new industrial scrap.

For obsolete grades, improved Turkish demand is providing a more supportive export environment than the market experienced earlier in the summer. Increased overseas buying could reduce the amount of material available to domestic mills, helping offset otherwise softer conditions for Shredded Scrap and Heavy Melt.

Logistics & Market Access. BL Duke continues to leverage its multi-modal transportation network—truck, rail, and barge—to provide reliable service, maximize market access, and support stronger returns for our customers. Our team remains focused on creating competitive market options and delivering value across every grade and geography as August trading conditions develop.

What we are Watching

• Scrap metal supply and inventory levelsExport activity, including demand from Turkish mills
• Domestic steel mill utilization rates
• Hot-rolled coil (HRC) pricing
• Pig iron and other scrap substitute pricing
• Mill order books and production demand

August’s ferrous scrap market is expected to follow July’s lead continuing with the soft sideways trend. Increased demand for scrap metal from Chicago-area mills should provide support to prime grades, while Shredded scrap and Heavy Melt could see some additional softness.

Market fundamentals remain largely demand-driven. Healthy steel mill consumption, firm finished steel pricing, improving export activity, and extended mill order books should continue to support the broader market. As August trading develops, scrap availability and mill buying activity will determine whether obsolete grades remain steady or experience modest downward pressure.

How BL Duke Navigates the Market

During the first week of each month—often referred to as “The Buy”—our team works directly with steel mills to secure orders across all ferrous grades. Fastmarkets typically publishes and settles pricing on or before the 10th of the month, which often reflects the outcome of these negotiations. The following weeks are focused on executing and shipping against those commitments.

Market dynamics such as supply and demand, mill outages, export activity, weather conditions, and freight availability all play a role in shaping these negotiations. At BL Duke, we focus on shipping-point pricing and leverage our multi-modal capabilities—truck, rail, and barge—to move material efficiently and maximize value for our customers.

We will continue to monitor the market closely and update this forecast as new information becomes available leading up to the monthly trade.