June’s ferrous scrap market is expected to remain firm but balanced. Strong steel mill run rates and the highest domestic steel production levels since late 2021 continue to support underlying demand for scrap, particularly prime grades. At the same time, inventory management, planned outages, and stronger seasonal scrap flows are creating a more measured outlook heading into settlement.
Prime grades may continue to find support from elevated pig iron and HRC pricing. Pig iron values remain firm near $525/mt CFR New Orleans, while hot-rolled coil pricing recently climbed above $1,090/ST, reinforcing mill margins and supporting demand for busheling and other prime grades. However, similar dynamics in May produced mixed regional outcomes, suggesting pricing could vary market-to-market again in June.
Obsolete grades appear more balanced but face softer export support compared to recent months. A slowdown in Turkish import activity could limit upside potential for shredded and HMS pricing, while improving summer scrap flows continue to support supply availability across domestic markets.
“Steel has gotten a lift from tariffs. Scrap, not so much. That gap between steel and scrap pricing is something the market continues to work through.” — Jim Schulte, Director of Ferrous Processing
What we are Watching
- Scrap Supply vs Demand
- Export Activity & Turkey’s Demand
- Summer Seasonal Slowdown
- Mill Utilization Rates & Outages
- Pig Iron Prices
- Finished Steel Prices & Steel Production
Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market
In Chicago, June is expected to remain firm, with prime grades supported by strong steel production and mill demand, while obsolete grades face a more mixed outlook. The spread between prime and obsolete grades remains a key market theme heading into settlement.
Market Drivers. Prime scrap continues to be supported by elevated HRC pricing, firm pig iron replacement costs, and strong domestic steel production. U.S. raw steel output recently reached its highest weekly level since November 2021, reinforcing healthy mill demand and supporting consumption of prime grades such as busheling.
At the same time, stronger seasonal scrap flows are increasing obsolete supply across the Midwest. While domestic mill activity remains supportive, softer Turkish import demand could limit upside potential for shredded and Heavy Melt pricing. The result is a firm but more fragmented market environment similar to May.
Logistics & Market Access. Following the reopening of the Lockport Lock, Midwest logistics conditions are beginning to normalize. BL Duke continues to leverage its multi-modal transportation network — truck, rail, and barge — to maintain reliable service, maximize market access, and support stronger returns for our customers.
We will continue to monitor the market closely and update this forecast as new information becomes available leading up to the monthly trade.
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