After eight long months of flat or falling prices, December’s ferrous scrap market is finally looking a little more merry and bright and feeling early momentum heading into 2026. Export demand is rebounding, domestic Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices have climbed above $900 per short ton, and winter weather is tightening inbound flows and raising the risk of river delays. In non-ferrous markets the tone remains mixed. Stainless steel continues to soften, with several grades hitting two-year lows as weak nickel pricing, sluggish demand, and excess supply—keep pressure on the sector. Aluminum remains steady but quiet, with both primary and secondary grades holding flat amid light trading and muted mill demand. In contrast, copper is rallying, driven by genuine global scarcity rather than speculation.
Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market
In Chicago, both shred, steel turnings and cut grades saw a $20 per gross ton increase, marking their first upward movement since March. Prime grades also rose $10 per gross ton above November’s levels.
On the global front, Turkish export activity is beginning to rebound after months of minimal trade. Domestically, HRC has pushed above $900 per short ton, reversing a months-long slump. Winter weather across the U.S. is tightening inbound scrap flows, limiting access to mills and raising the threat of a river freeze that could disrupt barge traffic. Meanwhile, most scheduled mill outages have concluded, with only two remaining for the year, supporting more consistent melt schedules.
“We’re encouraged by the momentum building in December. Low inventories, better export demand, and mills coming back online are giving the market the lift it’s been waiting for. It’s still a dynamic market, but the fundamentals look healthier as we head toward Q1 and into 2026,” says Lou Plucinski, President.
Chicago’s Non-Ferrous Scrap Market
Stainless Steel
The stainless steel market continues to soften, with certain grades now touching two-year lows. This persistent decline is primarily driven by weakening LME Nickel prices and an ongoing imbalance where oversupply significantly outweighs demand. Demand for 304 stainless remains especially sluggish, with limited domestic interest and virtually no traction in export markets—particularly as Europe continues to show weakness. On a steadier note, 400 series grades are experiencing some downward pressure, but not enough to trigger a price drop—at least for the time being.
Aluminum
Both primary and secondary aluminum scrap prices are expected to remain flat this month. There has been little to no movement in either the U.S. Aluminum Transaction premium or spot LME Aluminum pricing, reflecting steady—if uninspired—market fundamentals. Smelter and mill demand remains subdued, and trading volumes are light.
Copper
Copper prices continue their rally, with LME copper climbing nearly 2.5% as tight global supply meets a surge in shipments into the U.S. Unlike past speculative runs, this price movement is rooted in physical scarcity, not market sentiment. Copper is now trading around $5.35/lb. on the London Metal Exchange, a reflection of real-world tightness.
Investors are closely watching three key drivers:
U.S. trade policy clarity – especially tariff direction. - Ongoing mine disruptions – and whether they’ll extend into early 2026.
- China’s spending pace – including industrial stimulus and EV-related investment.
The core story is simple: scarcity has returned to the copper market, and prices are adjusting accordingly. If supply remains constrained and demand holds, further upside remains a real possibility.
