During the first week of each month, referred to as “The Buy,” our team negotiates with steel mills to secure purchase orders for all ferrous grades. The remaining three weeks are then focused on fulfilling these orders. Various factors, including supply and demand, mill outages, export demand, weather conditions, and the availability of  freight and cost, impact these negotiations. At BL Duke, we prioritize shipping point pricing and take full advantage of our ability to ship materials via truck, rail, and barge.

As we move into October, the domestic ferrous scrap market is showing signs of weakness. Most grades are expected to fall $20 per gross ton, driven by scheduled mill outages, logistical challenges, and a weak export market. While supply remains abundant, demand is lagging—keeping the market under pressure.

Mill Outages – Twelve mill outages are scheduled for October, reducing melt schedules and limiting near-term demand.

HRC Softening – Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continue to decline, reflecting weaker steel demand and tighter margins for mills.

Tariff Uncertainty – Uncertainty around tariff policies continues to cloud the outlook. Supreme Court oral arguments are set to begin on November 5th. Tariffs remain in effect pending the court’s decision.

Supply/Demand Imbalance – Scrap availability is outpacing mill consumption across multiple regions. This imbalance is putting consistent downward pressure on pricing and limiting opportunities for stability.

Logistics Challenges – Low river levels and barge backups are keeping scrap in Chicago, restricting normal market flow and contributing to localized supply build-ups.

Export Weakness – Exports remain sluggish, offering little support for domestic prices. Without stronger overseas demand, the U.S. market is left to absorb excess supply.

With these factors combined, October is forecasted to be down $20 per gross ton across most grades.

Want to know how this outlook impacts your scrap program?

Contact the BL Duke team to schedule a meeting and review your recycling strategy.

Let’s take a fresh look at your program and find efficiencies that make the difference.