April’s Scrap Forecast
As we look ahead to April, the impact of planned steel mill outages is becoming more pronounced across the domestic market. A growing number of mills — particularly across sheet production — are taking downtime throughout March and April, with some outages extending into May. This is expected to temporarily reduce scrap demand, especially for prime grades tied closely to flat-rolled steel production.
At the same time, improving weather conditions are increasing inbound flows, while limited export activity continues to keep excess obsolete material domestic. This combination is creating a more balanced, but fragmented market.
Key Market Factors
Prime vs. Obsolete Spread Widening – Obsolete grades under pressure while prime remains supported
Mill Outages Impacting Demand – U.S. Steel, NLMK, and Nucor downtime reducing near-term consumption
Weak Export Market – Limited offshore activity creating excess obsolete supply
Seasonal Supply Increase – Warmer weather improving scrap flows
HRC Supporting Prime Grades – Elevated steel pricing maintaining mill demand for busheling
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We’ve also been working on something in Northwest Indiana that we’re excited to share soon – focused on strengthening how we support manufactures in this market.
How BL Duke Navigates the Market
During the first week of each month—referred to as “The Buy”—our team works directly with steel mills to secure orders across all ferrous grades. The following three weeks are focused on executing and shipping against those commitments.Market dynamics such as supply and demand, mill outages, export activity, weather conditions, and freight availability all play a role in shaping these negotiations. At BL Duke, we focus on shipping-point pricing and leverage our multi-modal capabilities—truck, rail, and barge—to move material efficiently and maximize value for our customers.
Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market
In Chicago, April is expected to bring downward pressure on obsolete grades, with declines projected in the $20–40/GT range. Prime scrap is expected to remain relatively stable, supported by domestic mill demand and stronger HRC pricing.
Ongoing mill outages across Northwest Indiana, including U.S. Steel (Gary), NLMK (Portage), and Nucor (Kankakee), along with additional downtime across domestic mills, are expected to limit near-term demand—particularly for prime grades—while improved weather conditions increase inbound scrap flows, contributing to a more balanced and fragmented market.
