During the first week of each month, referred to as “The Buy,” our team negotiates with steel mills to secure purchase orders for all ferrous grades. The remaining three weeks are then focused on fulfilling these orders. Various factors, including supply and demand, mill outages, export demand, weather conditions, and the availability of freight and cost, impact these negotiations. At BL Duke, we prioritize shipping point pricing and take full advantage of our ability to ship materials via truck, rail, and barge.
As we move into November, the domestic ferrous scrap market appears to be finding its floor following price declines in previous months. While a sharp rebound isn’t expected, several factors are helping to stabilize the market and support a sideways trend through the remainder of 2025.
Mill Outages – Maintenance outages continue through year-end, though fewer than in previous months. Reduced downtime is supporting steadier melt schedules and improved mill demand.
Shred Tightening – Shred availability is beginning to tighten as inbound flows slow and yards adjust to lower collection volumes. This tightening supply is helping to offset soft mill buying programs.
Flat Roll Demand – Flat roll order books are showing modest improvement, signaling a gradual pickup in steel demand as mills work through inventories.
Export Activity – Export activity has inched higher, providing some additional support to domestic prices. However, volumes remain well below last year’s levels.
Pig Iron Stability – Pig iron pricing is holding steady, reinforcing expectations for market stability in the near term.
Tariff Uncertainty – Trade policy remains a key wildcard. Potential changes to Section 232 tariffs and other import measures continue to cloud the long-term outlook.
Futures Market Outlook – Futures markets are showing signs of optimism, with early 2026 contracts trending higher—a potential signal that the bottom of the market has been reached.
With these factors combined, November is expected to trade sideways, holding steady after October’s declines and setting the stage for a more balanced close to the year.
Want to know how this outlook impacts your scrap program?
Contact the BL Duke team to schedule a meeting and review your recycling strategy.
