During the first week of each month, referred to as “The Buy,” our team negotiates with steel mills to secure purchase orders for all ferrous grades. The remaining three weeks are then focused on fulfilling these orders. Various factors, including supply and demand, mill outages, export demand, weather conditions, and the availability of freight and cost, impact these negotiations. At BL Duke, we prioritize shipping point pricing and take full advantage of our ability to ship materials via truck, rail, and barge.
As we move into March, the domestic ferrous scrap market is trending sideways, with underlying strength met by disciplined steel mill buying strategies. While demand indicators remain supportive, mills are working to keep pricing contained, applying downward pressure where possible as the market searches for balance.
Supreme Court Ruling & Tariffs – The recent Supreme Court decision overturning prior tariff measures has added a new layer of uncertainty. In response, a 15% tariff on all imports has been imposed, set to expire in 150 days unless Congress approves an extension. Markets are watching closely as participants assess how these policy shifts may influence trade flows and domestic steel pricing.
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices – HRC prices are holding in the high-$900s per short ton, reaching a two-year high. Strong finished steel pricing continues to provide underlying support for scrap values.
Manufacturing PMI – The Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.6% in January 2026, up from 47.9% in February 2025, marking the first expansion in 12 months.
U.S. Steel Mill Utilization – Mill utilization rose to 77.8%, up from 77.1% the prior week. Increased production levels reinforce steady scrap consumption across the domestic market.
Export Demand – Export markets are showing signs of improvement, providing an additional outlet for material.
Chicago Region Logistics – A 49-day lock and dam closure is impacting regional scrap flows. However, BL Duke’s facilities are positioned below the closure, allowing operations to continue without disruption.
Weather – Seasonal weather conditions remain a variable, influencing inbound scrap flows and transportation efficiencies across the country.
Overall, March is shaping up to trade in a balanced, sideways range, supported by solid fundamentals while offset by mill buying strategies and trade policy developments.
Want to know how this outlook impacts your scrap program?
Contact the BL Duke team to schedule a meeting and review your recycling strategy.
