During the first week of each month, referred to as “The Buy,” our team negotiates with steel mills to secure purchase orders for all ferrous grades. The remaining three weeks are then focused on fulfilling these orders. Various factors, including supply and demand, mill outages, export demand, weather conditions, and the availability of freight and cost, impact these negotiations. At BL Duke, we prioritize shipping point pricing and take full advantage of our ability to ship materials via truck, rail, and barge.
As we move into January, the domestic ferrous scrap market is showing continued strengthening, building on December’s momentum. While conditions do not point to an explosive rally, a combination of tightening supply, firm steel pricing, and supportive global signals are aligning to keep the market on firm footing as 2026 begins.
Winter Weather – Seasonal winter weather is already affecting scrap flows in several regions, slowing inbound material and tightening availability. These weather-related disruptions are contributing to tighter supply at steel mills.
Tight Supply at Steel Mills – Limited inbound scrap continues to keep mill inventories tight. Several mills also drew down scrap inventories at year-end for accounting reasons, potentially increasing January purchasing activity compared to December.
Export Activity – Export demand remains active, continuing to pull material out of the domestic market. Ongoing overseas interest is helping balance supply and providing additional support to pricing.
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices – HRC prices are holding above $900 per short ton, reflecting sustained strength in flat-rolled steel demand.
Futures Market Strength – Futures markets are trending higher, signaling improved sentiment and expectations for stability to modest upside in the near term.
With these factors combined, January is expected to trade on a firm, supported basis, setting a constructive tone for the early months of 2026
Want to know how this outlook impacts your scrap program?
Contact the BL Duke team to schedule a meeting and review your recycling strategy.
