During the first week of each month, referred to as “The Buy,” our team negotiates with steel mills to secure purchase orders for all ferrous grades. The remaining three weeks are then focused on fulfilling these orders. Various factors, including supply and demand, mill outages, export demand, weather conditions, and the availability of freight and cost, impact these negotiations. At BL Duke, we prioritize shipping point pricing and take full advantage of our ability to ship materials via truck, rail, and barge.
As we move into December, the domestic ferrous scrap market is anticipated to strengthen, marking the first increase since March of this year. While not a full rally, several supportive factors are aligning to push some prices higher as we close out 2025.
Export Activity – Export demand continues to build, with increased buying interest from Turkey helping pull tons out of the domestic market.
Scheduled Mill Outages – Mill maintenance outages are largely wrapping up, with only one scheduled in December. As downtime decreases, melt schedules are normalizing and mill demand is beginning to improve.
Pig Iron Prices – Pig iron pricing is trending higher, signaling stronger global demand and influencing raw material costs for domestic mills.
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices – HRC prices are also increasing, reflecting improved flat roll demand and providing mills with greater margin flexibility to support higher scrap prices.
Seasonal Slowdown – Seasonal slowdowns and holiday schedules are reducing inbound scrap flows across many regions, tightening availability and adding further support to December’s upward momentum.
Improved Market Sentiment – After months of stagnation, market participants are increasingly aligned in calling for a small but meaningful uptick as fundamentals shift in a more supportive direction.
With these factors combined, December is expected to trade upwards, positioning the market for a firmer start to 2026.
Want to know how this outlook impacts your scrap program?
Contact the BL Duke team to schedule a meeting and review your recycling strategy.
