Even with frigid temperatures gripping the Midwest, February’s ferrous scrap market stayed hot, building on the momentum that’s been taking shape early in 2026. Winter weather played a central role this month, slowing inbound scrap flows and tightening supply just as mill demand increase. Non-ferrous markets also trended higher overall. Stainless steel and aluminum saw modest gains amid tighter availability and improving sentiment, while copper continued to lead the complex higher following a sharp rebound, driven by strong U.S. demand and ongoing tariff concerns.
Chicago’s Ferrous Scrap Market
In Chicago, all grades saw a $30 per gross ton increase. Weather remained the key driver of tight supply, slowing inbound scrap flows across the region and limiting availability. Despite the challenging conditions, river sales and barge activity in the Chicago market remained uninterrupted, allowing logistics to stay steady even as material tightened elsewhere.
“February’s winter weather continues to slow scrap flows and tighten supply,” states Jim Schulte, Joliet Yard Manager. “This time of year, we’re focused on navigating snow, ice, transportation challenges, and equipment maintenance. Even without river disruptions, colder conditions alone are enough to limit flows and keep supply tight.”
Export demand continues to improve, pulling additional tons out of the domestic market and adding support to pricing. At the same time, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices are holding in the mid-$900s per short ton, reinforcing confidence in flat-rolled steel demand and underpinning scrap values.
Futures markets are trending higher 
as well, signaling positive sentiment and expectations for stability to modest upside in the near term. One item still on the market’s radar is the next potential Supreme Court decision related to tariffs, currently expected around February 20th, which could influence sentiment as we move further into the quarter.
Chicago’s Non-Ferrous Scrap Market
Stainless Steel
Although the nickel market has climbed nearly 18% over the past month, stainless steel scrap prices have not fully reflected the broader market gains. Still, a combination of winter-related supply tightness and rising market sentiment has resulted in a modest price increase. With weather impacts lingering and export demand improving, stainless scrap prices are expected to continue trending higher in the coming weeks.
Aluminum
U.S. aluminum prices have continued to trend higher, supported by strong export demand and ongoing logistical challenges. However, domestic trading activity remains limited, as most U.S. mills and smelters are working through sizable scrap inventories that are allowing operations to run at full capacity. Looking ahead, domestic mill and smelter demand is expected to strengthen in the second quarter of 2026.
Copper
Copper has rebounded sharply, climbing roughly 40% since its late-July selloff and moving higher in tandem with precious metals such as silver and gold. This rally reflects classic supply-and-demand dynamics playing out in real time, with fundamentals continuing to support elevated copper prices over the long term. Recent price strength appears to be driven more by speculative inflows than by revisions to China’s economic outlook. In the U.S., demand has surged amid concerns over potential tariffs, as reports indicate that President Donald Trump is considering import tariffs of approximately 15% in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028.
U.S. stockpiling is unlikely to persist indefinitely, regardless of whether tariffs are ultimately imposed. A swift implementation would likely curb imports, while a delayed decision would refocus attention on the global market, where supply constraints are less pronounced. As a result, a price correction could emerge in Q2, tied to clarity around U.S. refined copper tariff policy. Once policy direction becomes clearer, existing U.S. stockpiles are expected to be gradually drawn down.
